Question 1

What is Reference Class Forecasting?

Accepted Answer

Improves forecast accuracy by anchoring to historical base rates of comparable projects. In SolveRight, Reference Class Forecasting uses a probabilistic rubric to compute a normalized 0–100 score for each option.

Question 2

When should I use Reference Class Forecasting?

Accepted Answer

Reference Class Forecasting is best suited for Innovation & Growth decisions. It evaluates factors like reference class, outcome distribution, inside view estimate, making it valuable when you need exploring new opportunities and creative problem-solving.

Question 3

How does SolveRight use Reference Class Forecasting?

Accepted Answer

SolveRight runs Reference Class Forecasting alongside up to 154 other frameworks simultaneously. The AI extractor identifies 3 key data points from your decision description, then the probabilistic rubric computes deterministic scores. If Reference Class Forecasting disagrees with other frameworks, contradiction detection highlights the divergence.

Reference Class Forecasting

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Reference Class Forecasting — Frequently Asked Questions

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